Iridium’s 2025 Outlook: Will Green Hydrogen Demand Sustain Prices?

Iridium, a rare and corrosion-resistant platinum group metal, is at the center of a critical question: Iridium’s 2025 Outlook: Will Green Hydrogen Demand Sustain Prices? As the world transitions to cleaner energy sources, green hydrogen, produced through water electrolysis, has emerged as a promising solution. However, this burgeoning industry relies heavily on iridium, specifically in proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers, where it acts as a catalyst. With only about 7 tons of iridium mined annually, the question is whether this limited supply can meet the soaring demand from the green hydrogen sector and other industries, and what that means for iridium prices in 2025 and beyond.

The Green Hydrogen Boom and Iridium’s Vital Role

Green hydrogen is produced by splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen using electricity generated from renewable sources like solar and wind. Electrolyzers are the devices that perform this process, and PEM electrolyzers are particularly well-suited for renewable energy integration due to their rapid response times and high current density. However, PEM electrolyzers require catalysts to facilitate the electrochemical reactions. Iridium oxide stands out as the most effective and stable catalyst for the oxygen evolution reaction (OER) within these electrolyzers because of its exceptional corrosion resistance in acidic environments.

The hydrogen economy is poised for substantial growth, driven by the need to decarbonize various sectors, including:

Long-duration energy storage: Hydrogen can store surplus electricity, addressing the intermittency of renewable energy sources.
Decarbonized steel production: Hydrogen can replace coal in steel manufacturing, significantly reducing emissions.
Clean aviation and shipping: Hydrogen-based fuels can power aircraft and ships, contributing to greener transportation.
Chemical industry: Hydrogen is a key feedstock for producing various chemicals, offering a pathway to cleaner chemical manufacturing.

This widespread applicability has led to optimistic projections for the hydrogen market. The global hydrogen market, valued at $200 billion in 2024, is projected to reach $700 billion by 2040. Green hydrogen production is also expected to triple in 2025 compared to 2023. However, the reliance on iridium in PEM electrolyzers casts a shadow on this bright future.

The Iridium Supply Challenge

Iridium is one of the rarest elements on Earth, with limited production concentrated in a few geographical locations.

Scarcity: Iridium constitutes a tiny fraction of the Earth’s crust.
Production concentration: South Africa and Russia hold a significant portion of the world’s iridium reserves and production.
By-product metal: Iridium is primarily extracted as a by-product of platinum and nickel mining, meaning its production is dependent on the demand and output of these primary metals.

The combination of scarcity and concentrated production creates a fragile supply chain vulnerable to disruptions. Geopolitical tensions, operational challenges in major producing regions (such as electricity shortages and labor unrest in South Africa), and increasing scrutiny on Russia due to international sanctions can all exacerbate price volatility and threaten the stability of the iridium supply.

The numbers paint a concerning picture. The German raw materials agency, DERA, anticipates that by 2040, the demand for iridium could escalate to a staggering 34 tons. A Wood Mackenzie analyst estimated that world iridium production totaled 255,000 ounces (15,937 pounds) in 2022. To bring global hydrogen production to terawatt scale, the equivalent of 40 years of iridium extraction would be required.

Price Volatility and Market Forecasts

The limited supply and increasing demand have historically led to significant price fluctuations for iridium.

Past price surges: Iridium prices have experienced dramatic increases, such as the surge from $1,670/oz in December 2020 to $6,000/oz by March 2021.
Long-term trends: Longer-term trends for iridium show dramatic increases: its price was up +175.20% since January 2020 ($52.91/g to $145.61/g in June 2025) and a remarkable +323.38% since January 2018 ($34.39/g).

While the iridium price tended to fall in 2024, as demand from the hydrogen economy was not quite as strong as expected at the beginning of the year, the fundamental outlook for iridium is good, as the market will narrow next year. Heraeus expects the iridium price in 2025 to range between $4,900 and $5,600 per troy ounce.

Strategies to Mitigate the Iridium Challenge

The iridium supply challenge necessitates a multi-pronged approach:

Reducing Iridium Usage in Electrolyzers:
- Catalyst optimization: Researchers are actively developing modified oxygen exchange mechanisms and lattice-water-assisted techniques to boost the efficiency and stability of iridium-based electrocatalysts, potentially reducing iridium consumption by 5% to 12%.
- Alternative catalyst materials: Exploration of non-precious metal catalysts, such as cobalt, nickel, and iron, is underway to replace iridium altogether.
- Innovative catalyst designs: Combining iridium with more abundant materials like manganese oxide can significantly reduce iridium requirements while maintaining high electrolysis efficiency. A Japanese research team has developed an electrolysis method that requires 96% less iridium for the same outcome.
- Diversifying Electrolyzer Technologies:
- Alkaline electrolyzers: These electrolyzers do not require iridium and rely on more abundant materials.
- Solid oxide electrolyzers: This technology is also iridium-free and offers potential advantages in high-temperature operation.
- AEM electrolyzers: Anion exchange membrane electrolyzers are gaining traction as a low-cost alternative.
- Enhancing Iridium Recycling and Recovery:
- Advanced recycling techniques: Employing chemical extraction, electrochemical processes, and mechanical separation to recover iridium from various sources, including electronic waste, spark plugs, and industrial catalysts.
- “Urban mining”: Extracting iridium from end-of-life products and industrial waste streams to supplement primary mining production.
- Efficient recycling processes: McCol Metals has developed an advanced process to effectively facilitate the sustainable recovery and recycling of iridium from titanium substrates – more specifically, from spent mixed metal oxide (MMO) anodes.

The Bottom Line: Navigating the Iridium Landscape in 2025

Iridium’s 2025 outlook is a complex interplay of surging green hydrogen demand, constrained supply, and ongoing innovation. While the price may be volatile, the long-term trend suggests sustained value due to its critical role in various advanced technologies.

For investors and stakeholders in the green hydrogen sector, understanding the iridium supply chain and its associated risks is paramount. Strategies to mitigate these risks include:

Technology diversification: Investing in and developing electrolyzer technologies that minimize or eliminate iridium usage.
Supply chain resilience: Establishing long-term contracts with iridium suppliers and exploring alternative sourcing options.
Recycling initiatives: Supporting and investing in iridium recycling programs to enhance supply security.

The future of green hydrogen hinges on addressing the iridium challenge. By embracing innovation, promoting sustainable practices, and strategically managing supply chain risks, the industry can pave the way for a cleaner, more sustainable energy future.